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. 2010 Jul;16(7):1108-15.
doi: 10.3201/eid1607.091785.

Deforestation and malaria in Mâncio Lima County, Brazil

Sarah H Olson  1 , Ronald Gangnon, Guilherme Abbad Silveira, Jonathan A Patz
Affiliations

Deforestation and malaria in Mâncio Lima County, Brazil

Sarah H Olson et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2010 Jul.

Abstract

Malaria is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the Amazon. We used malaria reports for health districts collected in 2006 by the Programa Nacional de Controle da Malaria to determine whether deforestation is associated with malaria incidence in the county (municipio) of Mancio Lima, Acre State, Brazil. Cumulative percent deforestation was calculated for the spatial catchment area of each health district by using 60 x 60-meter, resolution-classified imagery. Statistical associations were identified with univariate and multivariate general additive negative binomial models adjusted for spatial effects. Our cross-sectional study shows malaria incidence across health districts in 2006 is positively associated with greater changes in percentage of cumulative deforestation within respective health districts. After adjusting for access to care, health district size, and spatial trends, we show that a 4.2%, or 1 SD, change in deforestation from August 1997 through August 2001 is associated with a 48% increase of malaria incidence.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Mâncio Lima is the westernmost county in Brazil. The 2006 malaria incidence (cases/person) is mapped according to health districts (n = 54).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Deforestation trends in Mâncio Lima, Brazil, based on PRODES (Programa de Cálculo do Desflorestamento da Amazônia) 60 × 60–meter classified satellite imagery. The health districts are outlined in black. Baseline deforestation that occurred in 1997 is orange, deforestation that occurred between 1997 and 2006 is light brown, nonforested land is blue, and forested land is green.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Box-and-whisker plots of slide-confirmed malaria cases on a logarithmic scale by health districts in Mâncio Lima, Brazil, 2003–2008. Error bars indicate interquartile ranges, and thick horizontal bars indicate the median.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Cloropleth maps of selected malaria risk factors for health districts in Mâncio Lima, Brazil. A) Resident population in health districts in 2006. B) Percentage of slide-confirmed malaria cases receiving access to care within the first 48 hours of symptom onset in 2006. C) Percentage of 1997 deforestation in each of the health districts calculated from 60 × 60-meter resolution classified PRODES data. D) Cumulative percentage change in deforestation by health district from 1997 to 2006. Uninhabited areas are excluded from the analysis.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Joint relative risk plot of access to care and health district spatial area, Mâncio Lima, Brazil. Contour lines indicate the joint relative risk for standard deviation changes in percentage access to care and health district spatial area. Open circles are the observed percentage access to care and health district spatial area size data pairs for the 54 health districts. The contour line increment of relative risk is 0.2, increasing with the shading from red to white.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Multivariate model residual map, Mâncio Lima, Brazil.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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