Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)
- PMID: 32179701
- PMCID: PMC7164387
- DOI: 10.1126/science.abb3221
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)
Abstract
Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)] infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here, we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model, and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate that 86% of all infections were undocumented [95% credible interval (CI): 82-90%] before the 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. The transmission rate of undocumented infections per person was 55% the transmission rate of documented infections (95% CI: 46-62%), yet, because of their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the source of 79% of the documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and indicate that containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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Update of
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Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (COVID-19).medRxiv [Preprint]. 2020 Feb 17:2020.02.14.20023127. doi: 10.1101/2020.02.14.20023127. medRxiv. 2020. Update in: Science. 2020 May 1;368(6490):489-493. doi: 10.1126/science.abb3221. PMID: 32511439 Free PMC article. Updated. Preprint.
Comment in
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Caring for Patients With Cancer During the COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy.JAMA Oncol. 2020 Jun 1;6(6):821-822. doi: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2020.1426. JAMA Oncol. 2020. PMID: 32275294 No abstract available.
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