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. 2020 Jun 23;117(25):13975-13982.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2002580117. Epub 2020 Jun 8.

Global impact of atmospheric arsenic on health risk: 2005 to 2015

Lei Zhang  1 , Yang Gao  2   3 , Shiliang Wu  4 , Shaoqing Zhang  5   6   7 , Kirk R Smith  8   9 , Xiaohong Yao  1   3 , Huiwang Gao  1   3
Affiliations

Global impact of atmospheric arsenic on health risk: 2005 to 2015

Lei Zhang et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

Arsenic is a toxic pollutant commonly found in the environment. Most of the previous studies on arsenic pollution have primarily focused on arsenic contamination in groundwater. In this study, we examine the impact on human health from atmospheric arsenic on the global scale. We first develop an improved global atmospheric arsenic emission inventory and connect it to a global model (Goddard Earth Observing System [GEOS]-Chem). Model evaluation using observational data from a variety of sources shows the model successfully reproduces the spatial distribution of atmospheric arsenic around the world. We found that for 2005, the highest airborne arsenic concentrations were found over Chile and eastern China, with mean values of 8.34 and 5.63 ng/m3, respectively. By 2015, the average atmospheric arsenic concentration in India (4.57 ng/m3) surpassed that in eastern China (4.38 ng/m3) due to the fast increase in coal burning in India. Our calculation shows that China has the largest population affected by cancer risk due to atmospheric arsenic inhalation in 2005, which is again surpassed by India in 2015. Based on potential exceedance of health-based limits, we find that the combined effect by including both atmospheric and groundwater arsenic may significantly enhance the risks, due to carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic effects. Therefore, this study clearly implies the necessity in accounting for both atmospheric and groundwater arsenic in future management.

Keywords: GEOS-Chem; atmospheric arsenic; cancer risk; noncarcinogenic effect.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Model-simulated atmospheric arsenic concentration compared with observational data at various sites from Europe (A and B), the United States (C and D), and other regions (E and F) for 2005 (A, C, and E) and 2015 (B, D, and F). The observational data for “other regions” were collected from individual studies with the specific references (shown in SI Appendix, Table S1) numbered as 1 to 30 adjacent to the data (triangles). The correlation coefficient R, marked with asterisks, indicating statistical significance at 95th level is shown in the upper right of each panel. MFB, mean fractional bias; MFE, mean fractional error.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Spatial distribution of atmospheric arsenic concentration from GEOS-Chem in 2005 (A) and 2015 (B) and the temporal variation (2015 minus 2005; C).
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Spatial distribution of CR value in 2005 for children (A) and adults (B) and in 2015 for children (C) and adults (D).
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
Population density (in million people per model grid) for people experiencing significant (exceeding 10−6) cancer risk due to atmospheric arsenic inhalation in (A) 2005 and (B) 2015.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 5.
The ratio of carcinogenic (A) and noncarcinogenic (B) effect of arsenic in the atmosphere to that in groundwater and the sum of arsenic noncarcinogenic effect from water and atmosphere. In A, the upward-facing triangles and circles represent the CR value exceeding the threshold in atmosphere only and both atmosphere and water, respectively. In B, the downward-facing triangles represent the HQ value exceeding the criteria in groundwater, whereas the locations without HQ exceedance are marked with squares. In C, the diamonds indicate the combined effect by adding the HQ from arsenic in the atmosphere and groundwater. All information about observational sites was acquired from literature described in SI Appendix, Fig. S12 and Table S3.
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