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. 2024 Jan 23;14(3):362.
doi: 10.3390/ani14030362.

Epidemiology and Scenario Simulations of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus (MERS-CoV) Disease Spread and Control for Dromedary Camels in United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Magdi Mohamed Ali  1 , Eihab Fathelrahman  2 , Adil I El Awad  2 , Yassir M Eltahir  3 , Raeda Osman  2 , Youssef El-Khatib  4 , Rami H AlRifai  5 , Mohamed El Sadig  5 , Abdelmalik Ibrahim Khalafalla  3 , Aaron Reeves  6
Affiliations

Epidemiology and Scenario Simulations of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus (MERS-CoV) Disease Spread and Control for Dromedary Camels in United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Magdi Mohamed Ali et al. Animals (Basel). .

Abstract

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) is a coronavirus-caused viral respiratory infection initially detected in Saudi Arabia in 2012. In UAE, high seroprevalence (97.1) of MERS-CoV in camels was reported in several Emirate of Abu Dhabi studies, including camels in zoos, public escorts, and slaughterhouses. The objectives of this research include simulation of MERS-CoV spread using a customized animal disease spread model (i.e., customized stochastic model for the UAE; analyzing the MERS-CoV spread and prevalence based on camels age groups and identifying the optimum control MERS-CoV strategy. This study found that controlling animal mobility is the best management technique for minimizing epidemic length and the number of affected farms. This study also found that disease dissemination differs amongst camels of three ages: camel kids under the age of one, young camels aged one to four, and adult camels aged four and up; because of their immunological state, kids, as well as adults, had greater infection rates. To save immunization costs, it is advised that certain age groups be targeted and that intense ad hoc unexpected vaccinations be avoided. According to the study, choosing the best technique must consider both efficacy and cost.

Keywords: Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus (MERS-CoV); control strategy; costs; disease spread; dromedary camels; vaccination.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Human MERS-CoV cases worldwide, broken down by potential source of exposure (in percent). Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Retrieved from https://www.fao.org/animal-health/situation-updates/mers-coronavirus, accessed on 15 July 2023 [3].
Figure 2
Figure 2
Percentage of human MERS-CoV reported cases by exposure source and years globally. Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Retrieved from https://www.fao.org/animal-health/situation-updates/mers-coronavirus, accessed on 15 July 2023 [3].
Figure 3
Figure 3
MERS-CoV transmission and geographical range. Reprinted from emergency preparedness, response—Middle East respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (MERS-CoV), WHO, MERS-CoV transmission, and geographical range. Website https://www.fao.org/animal-health/situation-updates/mers-coronavirus, accessed on 12 July 2023 [7].
Figure 4
Figure 4
Camel spatial distribution in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Note: Map developed by the authors.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Camels’ population in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2019, according to Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) statistics [9]. Note: Graph developed by the authors.
Figure 6
Figure 6
States and transitions simulated by Customized United Arab Emirates AE NAADSM. Source: The North American Animal Disease Spread Model NAADSM. Available online: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17614148/ (accessed on 15 February 2023) [20].
Figure 7
Figure 7
The Epi curve output for scenario 1 (without control measures). In this scenario, the total outbreak duration in days is 365 days, peaking at 121 days.
Figure 8
Figure 8
The Epi curve output for the scenario with control measures. The outbreak duration in scenario 2 (no movement control) reached 171 days, and in scenario 3 (no movement control + vaccination), it reached 118 days.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) scenarios, EPI curves by scenario and age. The adult camel’s curve is symmetric in scenario 1, while it is more skewed to the left in scenarios 2 and 3. After the 15th day of the outbreak duration, the EPI curve of the camel kids’ categories drops dramatically in scenarios 2 and 3.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) scenarios, EPI curves by scenario and age. The adult camel’s curve is symmetric in scenario 1, while it is more skewed to the left in scenarios 2 and 3. After the 15th day of the outbreak duration, the EPI curve of the camel kids’ categories drops dramatically in scenarios 2 and 3.
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References

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