Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2019 Nov:157:107843.
doi: 10.1016/j.diabres.2019.107843. Epub 2019 Sep 10.

Global and regional diabetes prevalence estimates for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045: Results from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, 9th edition

Pouya Saeedi  1 , Inga Petersohn  2 , Paraskevi Salpea  2 , Belma Malanda  2 , Suvi Karuranga  2 , Nigel Unwin  3 , Stephen Colagiuri  4 , Leonor Guariguata  5 , Ayesha A Motala  6 , Katherine Ogurtsova  7 , Jonathan E Shaw  8 , Dominic Bright  9 , Rhys Williams  9 ; IDF Diabetes Atlas Committee
Affiliations

Global and regional diabetes prevalence estimates for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045: Results from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, 9th edition

Pouya Saeedi et al. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2019 Nov.

Abstract

Aims: To provide global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045.

Methods: A total of 255 high-quality data sources, published between 1990 and 2018 and representing 138 countries were identified. For countries without high quality in-country data, estimates were extrapolated from similar countries matched by economy, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates (including previously undiagnosed diabetes) in adults aged 20-79 years.

Results: The global diabetes prevalence in 2019 is estimated to be 9.3% (463 million people), rising to 10.2% (578 million) by 2030 and 10.9% (700 million) by 2045. The prevalence is higher in urban (10.8%) than rural (7.2%) areas, and in high-income (10.4%) than low-income countries (4.0%). One in two (50.1%) people living with diabetes do not know that they have diabetes. The global prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance is estimated to be 7.5% (374 million) in 2019 and projected to reach 8.0% (454 million) by 2030 and 8.6% (548 million) by 2045.

Conclusions: Just under half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide and the number is projected to increase by 25% in 2030 and 51% in 2045.

Keywords: Diabetes; Impaired glucose tolerance; International Diabetes Federation; Prevalence; Projections; Undiagnosed.

PubMed Disclaimer

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by

See all "Cited by" articles

Publication types

LinkOut - more resources

-