Based on policies and actions in place as of December 2023, the global temperature increase is estimated to reach a median of 2.7 degrees Celsius in 2100. In the best-case scenario, where all announced net-zero targets, long-term targets, and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, the global temperature is still expected to rise by 1.8 degrees Celsius, when compared to the pre-industrial average.
In 2015, Paris Agreement parties pledged to limit global warming to well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with the aim of reaching a maximum of 1.5 degrees. As of 2023, a warming of 1.3 degrees above the pre-industrial average was recorded.
Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario
(in degrees Celsius)
According to the source, figures are āmedianā warming estimates, meaning there is a 50 percent chance that the calculated temperature would be exceeded if the given emissions pathway is followed.
The optimistic scenario refers to the best case, assuming full
implementation of all announced targets (but not necessarily submitted and binding).
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Climate Action Tracker. (December 31, 2023). Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved July 18, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/?session=88e907e6ad205e8e183d0226e694a4a8
Climate Action Tracker. "Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius)." Chart. December 31, 2023. Statista. Accessed July 18, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/?session=88e907e6ad205e8e183d0226e694a4a8
Climate Action Tracker. (2023). Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius). Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: July 18, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/?session=88e907e6ad205e8e183d0226e694a4a8
Climate Action Tracker. "Global Warming Projections by 2100, by Scenario (in Degrees Celsius)." Statista, Statista Inc., 31 Dec 2023, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/?session=88e907e6ad205e8e183d0226e694a4a8
Climate Action Tracker, Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/?session=88e907e6ad205e8e183d0226e694a4a8 (last visited July 18, 2024)
Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius) [Graph], Climate Action Tracker, December 31, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/?session=88e907e6ad205e8e183d0226e694a4a8